The Next Michigan Man

As a Michigan affiliate (eight relatives have attended the school), I feel I should address the Wolverine coaching situation. NOTE: This sausage-being-made analysis can be carbon-copied, with certain salient modifications, to any major program looking for a coach. So expect to see ripoffs of this when Bobby Bowden, Joe Paterno, Philip Fulmer et al get the axe or retire. (Good God, this will be a busy five years what with so many decade-plus tenured coaches inevitably stepping down at such big places.)

My prediction is that prior to November (possibly in the wake of their next loss), Lloyd Carr will reveal he is retiring at the end of the season. This will allow the university to begin a coaching search in earnest, get a jump on other schools and possibly save some money by snapping somebody up before a bidding war can ensue. It might also give the team some personal motivation to finish the season on a high note for the first time in five years.

The scuttlebutt is that Carr was planning on stepping down at the end of 2007 anyway; he’s been obviously unhappy with recent developments in college football – the expansion of recruiting hype, the money, the twelfth game, the pressure – and it’s clear from the Appalachian State game and his postgame press conference that he’s lost his passion for the job. An announcement of his departure will surprise no one.

Before discussing the candidates, a few points:

First, Bo Schembechler being dead REALLY sucks now, since he won’t be able to participate in the coaching search to keep an eye on the integrity and character of the candidates. Bo simply had a zero-tolerance policy for crappy character and wouldn’t let the department hire someone he didn’t trust.

Secondly, Michigan has to avoid the Nebraska Mistake. When Steve Pederson sent Frank Solich on his way, he hired an ex-pro coach (who had just been fired in his second season with Oakland) with slick X’s and O’s credentials who was going to bring the program into the 21st century. Instead the program is a madhouse of mediocrity, with no connection to its winning tradition. (And if anyone’s noticed, for all his high-powered passing game coaching, the only time Nebraska is successful is when they deploy a power running attack.) Nebraska fans are left confused, wondering whether to root for the hometown team or root against victory in the hopes it will get Bill Callahan fired. (This is not a joke. I know of at least one former NU player who feels this way.)

Third, on the other hand Michigan needs also to avoid Alabama Syndrome. When Bear Bryant died, Alabama looked at a coach named Bobby Bowden. Instead they hired Ray Perkins, helped along by his ‘Bama alum status. Since then a revolving door of former Crimson Tide players have donned the metaphorical houndstooth hat. Gene Stallings’ national championship notwithstanding, none have lived up to the Bear’s shadow. (Interestingly, Michigan’s coaches benefited greatly from having Bo alive to publicly support them, and were not eaten alive by the fanbase.) They tried Mike Price, then canned him for stripgate and (unjustly) refused to pay him on the way out.

Fourth, I don’t think Michigan will pull a Nick Saban and pay ridiculous top dollars for an already-established big-time coach. Inducing a coach to make a lateral move takes big dollars. Michigan doesn’t want to become a player in the arms race of collegiate football and hitch themselves to a $3mil/year head coaching payment. (If they did, Lloyd Carr would have been gone already.)

Fifth, as a corollary to #3, Michigan should accept that the Schembechler era might be over. If that is the case, the whole house should be open for cleaning – the career assistants, the strength and conditioning program, the secretaries, everything. If Michigan wants to be Michigan (i.e. guardians of the winningest record in college football), it has to accept that the new guy deserves total control. Anything less cripples the coach’s ability to implement his program.

With that in mind, here’s a discussion of possible coaching candidates and the headhunting philosophies behind them. (Note: this is only a discussion, not a narrowed-down list.) Michigan’s true options lie in one of three areas:

1. Find “Michigan’s Jim Tressel,” a homegrown guy who knows the state and is coaching in the GLIAC or somewhere else in the state. Problem: Tressel can get his entire Buckeye team from Ohio with enough left over for Michigan and the smaller Ohio schools. The state of Michigan ain’t got that much talent and U of M needs someone who knows how to go outside the borders.

2. Find a qualified head-coach-in-waiting in the assistant ranks of Division I-A football. Tons of college coaches got to the top this way; I won’t even bother naming an example.

3. Hire a head coach from a mid-major program who is big-time material but otherwise unconnected to the school. This is how Bo Schembechler (coaching at his alma mater Miami University) got to Michigan.

Unfortunately, the guy for plan #1, Brian Kelly, was just hired by Cincinnati last winter. He spent 13 years at Division II Grand Valley State with back-to-back national titles, followed by three years at Central Michigan (succeeded current Michigan OC Mike DeBord) where he won a MAC title. Hard to believe he’d jump ship after one year, but if he has a good season in Cincy the job might be too big for him to turn down. Grand Valley just won another title, but it’s hard to tell how much that coach can stand on his own.

On Plans 2 and 3, widely (or narrowly) rumored candidates for Michigan include:

Rich Rodriguez (head coach, West Virginia) – Last year Rodriguez parlayed a highly public courting by Alabama into a raise to stay at WVU. He’s a good coach for sure, but it’s hard to predict how his run-first spread attack would blend with a roster recruited to run a pro offense. Michigan could afford him but doesn’t want to – but hell, IM just hired West Virginia’s basketball coach.

Cam Cameron (head coach, Miami Dolphins) – Cam worked at Michigan for a decade (see points 2 and 3). Buying him out of the pros would probably cost more than UM is ready to pay. A good thing, because has was a failure as head coach at Indiana and is an unknown college commodity by this point. Doubtful.

Les Miles (head coach, LSU) – Miles is a trendy name to float, a former Michigan player and coach now the head of a southern football empire. The first issue is money (see point 4 above) and he’s getting mention because of his UM affiliation (points 3 and 5). I can’t put my finger on it, but something seems off about him, like he’s not in 100% control of things. He certainly doesn’t have the presence of Bo. And who knows if he’d even leave the only serious football school in the state to go to a weaker talent pool to fight with Michigan State over? Big problem: a bad habit of blowing big leads, both at Oklahoma State and LSU. Incredible talent might mask coaching deficiencies. Bang for the buck appears low. I’d be disappointed.

Jeff Tedford (head coach, Cal) – With his core of offensive talent graduating this season, 2008 would be the perfect year to start again. Plus he’s wardrobe tested in blue and gold with a history of supercharged offenses. Minuses: Tedford’s program hasn’t quite gotten the boot on the neck of the Pac-10 Conference. He’s never been off the west coast. He’s almost to the point of being a legend in Berkeley, the first consistently successful coach there in 50 years. And it’s his show. Don’t think he’d come.

Greg Schiano (head coach, Rutgers) – Schiano got a look at going back to Miami as head man but stayed at his alma mater. He’s quietly built a made-to-last program in Piscataway and plays an old-school style that would make the Ann Arbor transition easier. He has strong connections to vital New Jersey and Florida recruiting pipelines – essential now that Tressel’s got Ohio locked down*. Let’s be serious, anyone who can make Rutgers a regular threat should get a look. Schiano is a choice I could get enthused about.

(*Although let’s be serious, Michigan can recruit itself – the Wolverines need to be thinking about a guy who can coach, not some stuffed-shirt Rick Neuheisel wannabe who likes to play golf and sweet-talk 17-year olds.)

Bill Cowher (semi-retired former Steelers coach) – Hardass reputation, pro experience. The only thing he knows about college is that his daughter goes to one. I’m not excited by a former pro coach whose college coaching potential is totally unknown, and UM might get an arrogant ass like Charlie Weis. No way does the Wolverine brass want some kind of egomaniac running things.

Jim Harbaugh (head coach, Stanford) – Aside from being unproven at the highest level, Jimmay dissed Michigan academics, suggesting bogus diplomas and steering of kids into easy majors. I don’t want to reprise that debate, but despite doing his best Bo impersonation on a daily basis definitely Harbaugh has said enough inflammatory stuff to get him shut out of Schembechler Hall for a while.

Jon Tenuta (Georgia Tech defensive coordinator) might fit Plan 3. He’s a great defensive mind who’s been at it long enough to know how the game works and how to work recruiting. He’s currently Associate Head Coach so he knows the administrative details of being the head coach. He coached at Ohio State for 5 years so he knows the importance of beating Ohio.

(I haven’t listed any other assistants because they’ll all fit the same basic description of experience, skills, etc.)

Wild, unsubstantiated predictions: After feelers for all the usual suspects, I think Kelly and Schiano along with a relatively unheralded assistant a la Tenuta get a good hard look.