Friday, September 7, 2007

The Next Michigan Man

As a Michigan affiliate (eight relatives have attended the school), I feel I should address the Wolverine coaching situation. NOTE: This sausage-being-made analysis can be carbon-copied, with certain salient modifications, to any major program looking for a coach. So expect to see ripoffs of this when Bobby Bowden, Joe Paterno, Philip Fulmer et al get the axe or retire. (Good God, this will be a busy five years what with so many decade-plus tenured coaches inevitably stepping down at such big places.)

My prediction is that prior to November (possibly in the wake of their next loss), Lloyd Carr will reveal he is retiring at the end of the season. This will allow the university to begin a coaching search in earnest, get a jump on other schools and possibly save some money by snapping somebody up before a bidding war can ensue. It might also give the team some personal motivation to finish the season on a high note for the first time in five years.

The scuttlebutt is that Carr was planning on stepping down at the end of 2007 anyway; he’s been obviously unhappy with recent developments in college football – the expansion of recruiting hype, the money, the twelfth game, the pressure – and it’s clear from the Appalachian State game and his postgame press conference that he’s lost his passion for the job. An announcement of his departure will surprise no one.

Before discussing the candidates, a few points:

First, Bo Schembechler being dead REALLY sucks now, since he won’t be able to participate in the coaching search to keep an eye on the integrity and character of the candidates. Bo simply had a zero-tolerance policy for crappy character and wouldn’t let the department hire someone he didn’t trust.

Secondly, Michigan has to avoid the Nebraska Mistake. When Steve Pederson sent Frank Solich on his way, he hired an ex-pro coach (who had just been fired in his second season with Oakland) with slick X’s and O’s credentials who was going to bring the program into the 21st century. Instead the program is a madhouse of mediocrity, with no connection to its winning tradition. (And if anyone’s noticed, for all his high-powered passing game coaching, the only time Nebraska is successful is when they deploy a power running attack.) Nebraska fans are left confused, wondering whether to root for the hometown team or root against victory in the hopes it will get Bill Callahan fired. (This is not a joke. I know of at least one former NU player who feels this way.)

Third, on the other hand Michigan needs also to avoid Alabama Syndrome. When Bear Bryant died, Alabama looked at a coach named Bobby Bowden. Instead they hired Ray Perkins, helped along by his ‘Bama alum status. Since then a revolving door of former Crimson Tide players have donned the metaphorical houndstooth hat. Gene Stallings’ national championship notwithstanding, none have lived up to the Bear’s shadow. (Interestingly, Michigan’s coaches benefited greatly from having Bo alive to publicly support them, and were not eaten alive by the fanbase.) They tried Mike Price, then canned him for stripgate and (unjustly) refused to pay him on the way out.

Fourth, I don’t think Michigan will pull a Nick Saban and pay ridiculous top dollars for an already-established big-time coach. Inducing a coach to make a lateral move takes big dollars. Michigan doesn’t want to become a player in the arms race of collegiate football and hitch themselves to a $3mil/year head coaching payment. (If they did, Lloyd Carr would have been gone already.)

Fifth, as a corollary to #3, Michigan should accept that the Schembechler era might be over. If that is the case, the whole house should be open for cleaning – the career assistants, the strength and conditioning program, the secretaries, everything. If Michigan wants to be Michigan (i.e. guardians of the winningest record in college football), it has to accept that the new guy deserves total control. Anything less cripples the coach’s ability to implement his program.

With that in mind, here’s a discussion of possible coaching candidates and the headhunting philosophies behind them. (Note: this is only a discussion, not a narrowed-down list.) Michigan’s true options lie in one of three areas:

1. Find “Michigan’s Jim Tressel,” a homegrown guy who knows the state and is coaching in the GLIAC or somewhere else in the state. Problem: Tressel can get his entire Buckeye team from Ohio with enough left over for Michigan and the smaller Ohio schools. The state of Michigan ain’t got that much talent and U of M needs someone who knows how to go outside the borders.

2. Find a qualified head-coach-in-waiting in the assistant ranks of Division I-A football. Tons of college coaches got to the top this way; I won’t even bother naming an example.

3. Hire a head coach from a mid-major program who is big-time material but otherwise unconnected to the school. This is how Bo Schembechler (coaching at his alma mater Miami University) got to Michigan.

Unfortunately, the guy for plan #1, Brian Kelly, was just hired by Cincinnati last winter. He spent 13 years at Division II Grand Valley State with back-to-back national titles, followed by three years at Central Michigan (succeeded current Michigan OC Mike DeBord) where he won a MAC title. Hard to believe he’d jump ship after one year, but if he has a good season in Cincy the job might be too big for him to turn down. Grand Valley just won another title, but it’s hard to tell how much that coach can stand on his own.

On Plans 2 and 3, widely (or narrowly) rumored candidates for Michigan include:

Rich Rodriguez (head coach, West Virginia) – Last year Rodriguez parlayed a highly public courting by Alabama into a raise to stay at WVU. He’s a good coach for sure, but it’s hard to predict how his run-first spread attack would blend with a roster recruited to run a pro offense. Michigan could afford him but doesn’t want to – but hell, IM just hired West Virginia’s basketball coach.

Cam Cameron (head coach, Miami Dolphins) – Cam worked at Michigan for a decade (see points 2 and 3). Buying him out of the pros would probably cost more than UM is ready to pay. A good thing, because has was a failure as head coach at Indiana and is an unknown college commodity by this point. Doubtful.

Les Miles (head coach, LSU) – Miles is a trendy name to float, a former Michigan player and coach now the head of a southern football empire. The first issue is money (see point 4 above) and he’s getting mention because of his UM affiliation (points 3 and 5). I can’t put my finger on it, but something seems off about him, like he’s not in 100% control of things. He certainly doesn’t have the presence of Bo. And who knows if he’d even leave the only serious football school in the state to go to a weaker talent pool to fight with Michigan State over? Big problem: a bad habit of blowing big leads, both at Oklahoma State and LSU. Incredible talent might mask coaching deficiencies. Bang for the buck appears low. I’d be disappointed.

Jeff Tedford (head coach, Cal) – With his core of offensive talent graduating this season, 2008 would be the perfect year to start again. Plus he’s wardrobe tested in blue and gold with a history of supercharged offenses. Minuses: Tedford’s program hasn’t quite gotten the boot on the neck of the Pac-10 Conference. He’s never been off the west coast. He’s almost to the point of being a legend in Berkeley, the first consistently successful coach there in 50 years. And it’s his show. Don’t think he’d come.

Greg Schiano (head coach, Rutgers) – Schiano got a look at going back to Miami as head man but stayed at his alma mater. He’s quietly built a made-to-last program in Piscataway and plays an old-school style that would make the Ann Arbor transition easier. He has strong connections to vital New Jersey and Florida recruiting pipelines – essential now that Tressel’s got Ohio locked down*. Let’s be serious, anyone who can make Rutgers a regular threat should get a look. Schiano is a choice I could get enthused about.

(*Although let’s be serious, Michigan can recruit itself – the Wolverines need to be thinking about a guy who can coach, not some stuffed-shirt Rick Neuheisel wannabe who likes to play golf and sweet-talk 17-year olds.)

Bill Cowher (semi-retired former Steelers coach) – Hardass reputation, pro experience. The only thing he knows about college is that his daughter goes to one. I’m not excited by a former pro coach whose college coaching potential is totally unknown, and UM might get an arrogant ass like Charlie Weis. No way does the Wolverine brass want some kind of egomaniac running things.

Jim Harbaugh (head coach, Stanford) – Aside from being unproven at the highest level, Jimmay dissed Michigan academics, suggesting bogus diplomas and steering of kids into easy majors. I don’t want to reprise that debate, but despite doing his best Bo impersonation on a daily basis definitely Harbaugh has said enough inflammatory stuff to get him shut out of Schembechler Hall for a while.

Jon Tenuta (Georgia Tech defensive coordinator) might fit Plan 3. He’s a great defensive mind who’s been at it long enough to know how the game works and how to work recruiting. He’s currently Associate Head Coach so he knows the administrative details of being the head coach. He coached at Ohio State for 5 years so he knows the importance of beating Ohio.

(I haven’t listed any other assistants because they’ll all fit the same basic description of experience, skills, etc.)

Wild, unsubstantiated predictions: After feelers for all the usual suspects, I think Kelly and Schiano along with a relatively unheralded assistant a la Tenuta get a good hard look.

Week In Review

(4 September 2007)

Warning: not all posts will be this dry and redundant (and redundant). As the season goes on and we find out who’s actually any good, the coverage will turn to the story behind the story.

Last week’s action…

Oregon State beat Utah 24-7 in Corvallis – The Beavs looked unimpressive in the win over the Utes, sloughing through the game despite Utah missing its quarterback for much of the contest. Oregon State was incredibly focused and effective down the stretch last season, culminating in the 39-38 no-time-left win in the Sun Bowl. The only exception was a flopover loss against UCLA at the Rose Bowl.

Receiver Sammy Stroughter’s soap opera continues as he grieves in the loss of unnamed family members. The Beavers missed his production and new quarterback Sean Canfield looked shaky. Mike Riley had better get this ship tightened up before the Pac-10 schedule begins.

Washington won 42-12 at Syracuse – First the good: Jake Locker’s debut was masterful. The homegrown quarterback ran and threw like a white Vince Young. The team made very few mistakes and didn’t let a weak ‘Cuse offense get into the game in its own house. The defensive line was dominant.

Now the bad: it was against Syracuse. Syracuse quite frankly stinks and is probably worse on Day One of the season than the recently-famed Appalachian State. The Orange (who forced that stupid name change?) couldn’t protect the passer and couldn’t stop the UW running game. The biggest problem was continuing the offensive gameplan when it was clear the passing sets were failing.

Not a red-letter victory, but without doubt a trend-upwards win the Husky fans can feel good about. Boise State just got a bit more worried about next week’s game.

Washington State @ Wisconsin – The Badgers won 42-21, but the story behind the story is how WSU’s offense went right down the field on its first two drives, showing great run-pass balance. More than once, WSU downfield runners reversed field and left the Wisconsin defenders grasping for air.

After taking a quick lead, WSU dried up offensively, lacking the explosiveness to keep the pressure on, and wilted in the face of the Badger power running game. The nail went in the coffin when the Cougars punted with under a minute to go in the first half, then got a penalty tacked onto the return. Wisconsin got a deep pass into the end zone for a two-touchdown lead and the rest was just for show.

Cougar quarterback Alex Brink, the most experienced passer in the Pac-10, really showed his skills. He has a quick release when the routes are open, and used his mobility to buy time and make completions. Wisconsin appeared as advertised, with a big offensive line that will wear down opponents and a functional, efficient passing attack.

To keep track of the Apple Cup matchup, Washington State showed it has a greater diversity of weapons than Washington. WSU’s defense couldn’t hold up against a prototypical Big Ten offense with a huge offensive line, but Washington’s defense benefited from an untalented Syracuse offense sticking with its failing gameplan and not adjusting to the Husky pass rush.

Wisconsin is a much tougher opponent than Syracuse, so I would call it a draw so far.

A note on these games: In the process of claiming Michigan’s loss to Appalachian State “showed the Big Ten was the weakest BCS conference,” Neil Berman of Your Sports NightCap buttressed his argument by suggesting that Wisconsin struggled with a weak WSU team. He further suggested that UW’s win over Syracuse somehow showed more positives for UW than hanging in at a very tough Wisconsin venue showed about WSU. My analyses above speak for themselves, but as a reminder, it’s really too early to draw many conclusions other than that WSU can throw and UW’s quarterback can run.

UCLA won at Stanford, 45-17 – in the debut of Cardinal coach Jim Harbaugh, the home team went to 0-7 in its new stadium. We didn’t learn much about Stanford that we didn’t already know – the wide receivers can be dangerous, the defensive line is thin, and the defensive backs lack top-flight talent. That being said, Stanford’s only shot to win this one was to take advantage of UCLA mistakes. Except for two missed field goals, the Bruins didn’t make any.

I thought UCLA looked slightly overrated. Their defense sure didn’t play like a top-ten unit and QB Ben Olson is no Alex Brink.

Cal beat Tennesse 45-31 in Berkeley – Head-case quarterback Erik Ainge got along pretty well with a busted pinky on his throwing hand, but ultimately the offense didn’t have the strength, speed or guts to get on top of Cal.

The mythologic “SEC speed” on defense got totally outclassed. The Golden Bears ran over, through and around Tennessee and scored their first three touchdowns on offense, defense and special teams. Philip Fulmer stupidly punted to DeSean Jackson, the most dangerous player in the west, who broke four tackles en route to a spectacular touchdown.

Except for a period where Tennessee scored 10 points and pulled within a touchdown, Cal dominated the game. They were not afraid to hit the Vols in the mouth and make huge revenge statement after last year’s flop in Knoxville.

Oregon beat Houston, 48-27 in Eugene – this was a game (34-27) until the end of the third quarter. The teams combined for 52 first downs and almost 700 rushing yards. I didn’t see the game so I’m not going to speculate on possible defensive weaknesses, but the huge yardage put up by the Cougars should give any Duck fan pause.

Oregon is in very dangerous territory – happy from a win, the Ducks take their balanced offense to Michigan this weekend, in what could be the most hostile case of rebound victory in history.

BYU 20, Arizona 7 – The Sonny Dykes super-charged offense fell flat in Tucson as the Cougars ran up a 20-0 lead. Willie Tuitama went 26-for-36, but Arizona had to punt eight times and had seven penalties to go with 32 net rushing yards. Now that the heat is officially on Mike Stoops, the Wildcat offense, horrible for years, has the entire staff’s jobs around its neck. Is it basketball season yet?

Arizona State 45, San Jose State 3 – Spartans coach Dick Tomey, the man Arizona should never have let go, couldn’t work much offensive magic without his top two tailbacks. Dennis Erickson’s debut with the Sun Devils saw 520 yards in total offense to the Spartans’ 115.

The schedule doesn’t make it easy for San Jose State – their four-game road trip goes next to Kansas State (who hung tough at Auburn last Saturday), an improving Stanford squad and Utah State. Back-to-back road games at Fresno State and Boise State might all but kill the Spartans’ chances of repeating their 9-4 2006 record. This might be a case of a better team with a poorer record.

USC 38, Idaho 10 – Is there anything to say but we saw this one coming? USC beats season-opening opponent; not news. One thing USC has to work on is finding a tailback they can depend on. The by-committee approach got the job done last season, but they need a LenDale White guy to put in to get the tough yards.

John David Booty has done a fine enough job at quarterback, but with a second trip through the Pac-10 schedule and the loss of USC’s best receivers, I expect we might see something of a slump from him.

…and other games of interest:

TCU (plays Stanford on Oct 13) beat Baylor, 27-0 – Baylor ain’t good, but they’re not the doormat they used to be. I’m impressed with the focus of this win with Texas coming up next week. Star DE Tommy Blake (no relation to UCLA DE Tom Blake) did not play due to an unspecified injury. Horned Frogs go to Texas next weekend. The Longhorns underwhelmed and got outgained in their win over Arkansas State. Texas’ starting receiver opposite Limas Sweed is serving a three-game suspension, although he was supposedly injured anyway. Either way, Texas had better get it together or they’ll be the next poster child for early-season victories that propel mid-major teams to BCS dark horses (see: Oregon State-Boise State, Utah-Texas A&M).

Notre Dame (plays USC and Stanford) got pounded by Georgia Tech, 33-3 – The Ramblin’ Wreck didn’t care who was in at quarterback, although Notre Dame tried all three options. The running-quarterback offense, which had not been successful since the late-90’s Jarious Jackson era, was a failure against the Jackets’ swarming D (two fumbles set up GT scores) run by one of the best defensive minds in the game. In the tradition of Ron Powlus and Brady Quinn, Weis has named freshman Jimmy Clausen the starter to get him a jump on the tradition of four years of under-center overration. (This could be a huge mistake come September 15, given Michigan's total inability to stop running quarterbacks.)

This was the kind of game that got Tyrone Willingham on the hot seat and eventually fired. Yet, Charlie Weis held another passive-aggressive press conference flagellating himself for having the team unprepared, and all was forgiven. The media spent all of August saying Notre Dame would lose 6 games – Weis is Teflon this season.

Tashard Choice’s 196 yards on the ground punctuated the dominance, in Notre Dame’s house no less. (Michigan might want to think about handing the ball off on every play in two weeks.) Recently, only Michigan in 2006 and Purdue in 2004 have hung home defeats on Notre Dame with this much ferocity.

Cool stat of the week: Colorado quarterback Cody Hawkins hasn’t lost a game in his 60 career starts, covering youth ball, high school and now his first college start. He’s also head coach Dan Hawkins’ kid and put in a sterling comeback performance in one of the more underrated intrastate rivalries. (Hat tip: Sunday Morning Quarterback)

The Fulsome Files
Disgusting Excess in Sports Journalism

ESPN’s Mike TiricoSean McDonough, Chris Spielman and Colin Cowherd crowded the booth for the Washington-Syracuse game. If it’s possible, the normally egomaniacal Cowherd was the most listenable of the bunch. McDonough staged a love-fest for embattled ‘Cuse coach Greg Robinson. We learned about his NFL success, what a “good guy” he was and that all his colleagues were sure he’d turn things around.

While a sweet presentation, it completely ignored the results on the field – an inconsistent but dangerous program under Paul Pasqualoni has become one of the worst teams in Division I-A football under Robinson. Talent and a tough Big East is certainly part of it, but in the place of Pasqualoni’s multiple and adaptable offensive philosophy, Robinson installed a “West Coast” system they don't have the personnel to operate. I know a slick passing game is seen as some kind of zenith of football sophistication, but for heaven's sake, run something you can run.

Leave the memory of the dead with some dignity. Virginia Tech re-centering around a football game after a mentally disturbed student killed 32 people was a feel-good story. (The lackluster performance put in by the Hokie offense was a bit more hair-raising.) But the hours and hours of ESPN runup, retrospective packages, SportsCenter references and on and on got to be a bit much. It’d be a damn shame if a campus tragedy turned into a marketing device for a football team, but that’s close to how ESPN has been using it.

The old names were just fine. The media has rolled over in using the terms “Football Bowl Subdivision” and “Football Championship Subdivision” that replaced “I-A” and “I-AA” in NCAA parlance. They sound ridiculous, FCS and FBS being bandied about. I have to mentally expand the acronyms to remember which is which.

I don’t understand why the change was necessary, except possibly to avoid mixing I-AA football up with its D-II sister (I have noticed a lot of confusion among fans between Div I-AA and Div II). But it would have been just as well to call the two sides I-A and I-B.

I suspect also the NCAA may be upset about its lack of oversight of I-A’s bowl and BCS postseason, and executed the Orwellian language to subtly suggest a perceived illegitimacy of the I-A national championship. (Fear not, the merits of the I-A title system will be meticulously discussed on P10BH throughout the season. A warning, though – if you’re hoping for an exhaustive set of pro-playoff arguments, you should prepare to look elsewhere.)

Floppycock of the Week candidates
A floppycock is a very special designation – one who is unreliable, flakes out, doesn’t follow through or otherwise abdicates responsibility in a way that shames his own respect. It is distinct from terms like a**hole, coward, damn fool, sad sack, and screwup. It is reserved for those whose true occupational impotence is put on stark display.

Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, for putting a woefully unprepared Wolverine team on the field in the most embarrassing event in Michigan football history, then appearing bored in the postgame press conference. The performance continued a trend of lame Michigan performances against out-of-conference opponents large and small and magnified longstanding uncorrected issues with Michigan’s passing game, special teams and defensive strategy.

Syracuse coach Greg Robinson, for force-fitting a pro passing game onto an offensive personnel group unable to run it, and for now switching when the Husky defensive line was teeing off in the pass rush. And for letting his team wear those god-awful orange-on-orange uniforms. (I know the team nickname is the Orange, but seriously…)

And the winner is…Greg Robinson, whom not even an ESPN love-in could save on Friday. He’s the wrong guy for the job and should be gone by December if the ‘Cuse AD has the guts to sack the guy he hired barely three years ago.

Welcome

Allow myself to introduce...myself.

For the past three seasons I have been covering Stanford football for KZSU 90.1 FM, Stanford's campus radio station. I served two years as sports director at KZSU and also served as the original producer of Your Sports NightCap on KZSU. I served as game analyst in 2005, and took over the play-by-play duties in 2006. I had the pleasure of seeing in person several thrilling 2005 contests, and the ignominy of broadcasting the 1-11 2006 season.

This will not be a Stanford football blog. That role is filled by thebootleg.com (link). Instead, I will cover the Pac-10 in general, programs related to the Pac-10 (Notre Dame, Rose Bowl rival the Big Ten Conference, the WAC and the Mountain West), and issues related to college football at large.

The name Pac-10 Brewhouse is supposed to evoke both the making and drinking of the fine grain beverage. In brewing, time and care are combined with top ingredients to make a tasty, sophisticated refresher. In the pub where the drink is served, many voices blend in a broad, enriching discussion. So here's what you're in for: provocative, thought-provoking, insightful, witty, hard-hitting analysis of the world of college football. You can count on me to dissect the very burning issues of the game.

Lest I be accused of being some kind of a homer, I did not go to a big-time football university for college. I played Division III football at a small technical school north of Boston, Massachusetts.

Lastly: I did not take on the name Topher because of the influence of That 70's Show. I acquired the nickname in the 6th grade, long before Topher Grace was on national television.

Crack open a cold one and enjoy.